Arizona Weather Force has issued an Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Watch for much of Central and Arizona, extending from Yavapai southeast to Tucson and areas in-between like Case Grande and Maricopa County, effective now through tonight with a damaging wind and hail event expected, with even a sector of tornado dynamics, so read on for details …
A line of thunderstorms will erupt along the Mogollon Rim this afternoon, impacting the mountain communities there. This line will move southwestward off them and impact the lower desert areas of the population by evening and into the night. This line of storms will be capable of damaging winds in excess of hurricane force and hail 1-2″ in diameter. The cap has eroded and the temperatures will climb in the low levels. This brings high levels of instability and the storms moving off the rim will strengthen as they descend. The forecast graphic was updated for the final product and the AZWF models for severe hail and wind risk are below this write-up.
This will not be it, the inverted trough I spoke about in previous updates will move through on Saturday, which would renew the flooding rains, damaging winds, and large hail threat once again across the same watch area as today/tonight. Back-to-back events where storms come off the Mogollon Rim is to be expected. The storms are expected this evening around 7-8 pm for Phoenix, earlier if you are east and later if west of the airport. And the clock is ticking …
Phoenix Metro Arrival Of Outflow Boundary – Plus or minus an hour
Further west I’ve issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Havasu and Kingman areas. Should storms off Yavapai move in, they should make it all the way to the river with the flow being quick. Additional outflow from storms in Nevada and California will also enhance the chance for them. You’re basically borderline storms there, but nothing like what the other areas talked about above will be like.
Yuma, if storms make it there in severity it would be a miracle. Storms will be diminishing in strength overnight tonight as they head in your direction. What will be left of them would either be pop-up garden variety thunderstorms, or strong winds due to the outflow boundary. In any case, your risk is too low for me to include you in a higher alert.
Now here are your clickable images for severe hail and wind, as per the Arizona Weather Force model that runs until 5 am tomorrow morning –
And here is a larger image of the graphic above –
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Arizona Weather Force is a custom weather alert service that began in September 2019 off of Southern California Weather Force and is regarded as the most accurate weather service in the state, offering custom alerts, maps, and models to help save life and property. The work done here is never 100% accurate, but it comes pretty close. Arizona Weather Force runs on zones, so if an event happens in a zone that is 10 miles from the border of your zone, the forecast is still valid to activate your zone’s alert system. A company quote to the public is that of “The Joker” and tells other agencies in weather this all the time… “This world deserves a better class of meteorologist… and I’m gonna give it to them”… out-forecasting even the National Weather Service with lead-time and precision, which makes this service a focus of ridicule and envy in the weather community due to having such accuracy. Alerts issued here are issued custom from this office and this office alone. You may not even hear it elsewhere, but if one is issued near or in your area, listen up because “if you do not wish to die in weather, follow, it’ll save your life one day.”