Arizona Weather Force has issued a Severe Weather Statement out ahead of a volatile weather pattern not seen since August 2008 in the Phoenix Valley area in what will now be known as the ‘Friday the 13th Storm Complex’. Damaging winds and hail will be expected so read on for details, and prepare as I have been suggesting for days so you don’t lose a thing …
I will note there is a lift source Friday morning before for along I-10 PHX east and I-17 Phx North… also includes Queen Creek … So there is a chance of morning thunderstorms once again ahead of this event …
Preliminary estimations are that the low pressure over Phoenix right now will move south overnight and then drift west over the day on Friday. This will set up east-northeast to east flow. Storms erupting on the Mogollon Rim will be in a favorable environment to explode into severe thunderstorms. Given the flow is out of the east-northeast, and very quickly at that, these will make it to the Phoenix Valley and surrounding. The same will be said with Flagstaff to Prescott/Chino Valley once again. The focus however is the metro area of Phoenix. As these storms surge west-southwest, outflow ahead of them will pop off severe thunderstorms. Given the instability value will be high, hail between 1-2 inches will be possible along with hurricane-force wind gusts. Damage is expected with this event, which looks to hit Friday evening in the valley.
I suggest anyone in the red and especially magenta areas within the map in this post prepare for this event. This Severe Weather Statement does not cancel the flood watch. The AZWF Flood Watch issued August 10th did mention the chance this would happen so flooding is still expected with these storms as they move through. Those of you west of Phoenix, like Buckeye, Goodyear, and Tonopah, you may not be in the statement area, but the storms will fast enough to give you a good chance at them making it all the way through the entire county of Maricopa, hence the red shaded zones. Havasu, I’m still watching for your numbers to show up. The system today (Thursday) curved south to the east of the river valley as expected today so following that, your morning forecast numbers will be given when the alert goes out over the system. You are on the cusp of anything for Friday.
A Severe Weather Statement is issued 18-24 hours before a weather event is scheduled to hit the statement area. It does not finalize a forecast, which happens the morning of an event, sometimes between 9 am and 12 pm, but does help one to prepare in the locations targeted.
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Arizona Weather Force is a custom weather alert service that began in September 2019 off of Southern California Weather Force and is regarded as the most accurate weather service in the state, offering custom alerts, maps, and models to help save life and property. The work done here is never 100% accurate, but it comes pretty close. Arizona Weather Force runs on zones, so if an event happens in a zone that is 10 miles from the border of your zone, the forecast is still valid to activate your zone’s alert system. A company quote to the public is that of “The Joker” and tells other agencies in weather this all the time… “This world deserves a better class of meteorologist… and I’m gonna give it to them”… out-forecasting even the National Weather Service with lead-time and precision, which makes this service a focus of ridicule and envy in the weather community due to having such accuracy. Alerts issued here are issued custom from this office and this office alone. You may not even hear it elsewhere, but if one is issued near or in your area, listen up because “if you do not wish to die in weather, follow, it’ll save your life one day.”
– is a consulting meteorologist for over 50 different companies, including large oil companies like BP. He has certs from MSU and PSU as a meteorologist. Both short and long-range is very important to know in those jobs so you can bet on accuracy here. He is versed in fields like Western USA, Tornadoes, Floods, Hurricanes, High Winds, Fire Behavior, Snow and Blizzards, Short Range, Long Range, Seasonal, and Life-Threatening decisions with over 20 years experience, out-forecasting even the National Weather Service with lead-time and precision, which makes him a focus of ridicule and envy in the weather community due to having such accuracy.