Arizona Weather Force has issued a Tornado Watch extending from the Northern half of Pinal County, northwestward to the Central and Eastern parts of Maricopa County, which includes the Phoenix Metro and Valley locations, effective this evening through tonight out ahead of an unprecedented weather pattern that will bring a major severe weather outbreak to the state, rivaling the Friday The 13th Storm Complex last Friday. An Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Watch is also in effect surrounding the Tornado Watch area from North-Central to Southern Arizona when a 100 KT upper-level jet in the Pacific Northwest slams into the high-pressure system over California, the system will buckle, sending the inverted trough in New Mexico southwestward into Arizona in a violent push, setting off a chain reaction for numerous severe thunderstorms in the area.
Tornado Watch – In a watch I have not brought out for the state since November 2019 when Phoenix had around seven tornadoes, the atmosphere will be primed this evening and into half of the night across the watch area. At the surface this evening, a surge of moisture out of Mexico along with outflow from the Tucson forecast area’s severe thunderstorms will come through the I-10 corridor into Pinal County. This will bring low-level moisture, something not seen a lot this time of year. With the August 13th pattern, the bases (bottom) of the storms were 10,000 Ft, a normal base for the monsoon season. However, with the surge of low-level moisture, we will see those drop to under 3,000 FT. This is enough for a condensation funnel to reach the ground whereas 10,000 FT is not. A southeast flow with a northerly flow at 18,000 feet will bring shear into the mix and with the instability being high, supercell thunderstorms will be likely, capable of producing tornadoes. Now I know you in the watch areas will be out with your cameras filming the lightning, but do not be surprised to catch a funnel coming down, and some of you will receive damage from this event, which would either be from a microburst or a tornado if in or around the Tornado Watch zone. Many models have this moving in quick and out quick, but I know from experience that outflow boundaries bounce around creating storms that last hours into the night. Such the case will be here across the state.
Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Watch – This extends from Yavapai County to the northwest Apache County to the east, south to Douglas, and west to Lukeville, with Tucson well within it as well. Storms are expected to form over the Mogollon Rim and push south and eastward from there. Damaging winds and hail will be likely with them. The initial push is north to south, but when a 100 KT upper-level jet in the Pacific Northwest slams into the high-pressure system over California, the system will buckle, sending the inverted trough in New Mexico southwestward into Arizona in a violent push, setting off a chain reaction for numerous severe thunderstorms in the area. Storm activity will last most of the night …
So that is it, a Tornado Watch in a small area of the state from this office, and a large Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Stay safe because these all will cause flooding as well, which is the number one killer in the monsoon season. Be safe filming out there, and maybe one of you will capture a backlit tornado in the watch area.
Stay tuned to Arizona Weather Force for future updates if needed
The following images are of the AZWF wind and hail risk model that go until 5 am tomorrow (Tuesday) morning
The following image is of the current tornado and severe thunderstorm watches on a zoom-in image
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Arizona Weather Force is a custom weather alert service that began in September 2019 off of Southern California Weather Force and is regarded as the most accurate weather service in the state, offering custom alerts, maps, and models to help save life and property. The work done here is never 100% accurate, but it comes pretty close. Arizona Weather Force runs on zones, so if an event happens in a zone that is 10 miles from the border of your zone, the forecast is still valid to activate your zone’s alert system. A company quote to the public is that of “The Joker” and tells other agencies in weather this all the time… “This world deserves a better class of meteorologist… and I’m gonna give it to them”… out-forecasting even the National Weather Service with lead-time and precision, which makes this service a focus of ridicule and envy in the weather community due to having such accuracy. Alerts issued here are issued custom from this office and this office alone. You may not even hear it elsewhere, but if one is issued near or in your area, listen up because “if you do not wish to die in weather, follow, it’ll save your life one day.”