WARNING: Widespread Thunderstorms Detected To Hit Arizona On New Lightning Strike Prediction Model Develop; Flooding Likely In Spots Through Monday


Welcome back to Arizona Weather Force, Arizona’s new forecast service office since Fall 2019.  A new lightning strike model I am unveiling this week has been tested over the last 6 months and is successful in predicting areas where lightning will have the risk of striking and these are 1 hour intervals mashed together in one for the entire day on Monday.  This along with flooding and high terrain mountain snow will be likely and an official THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued so read on for details.

The forecast for Southern California is going extremely well right now and I do not see how this cutoff low will change course or elude me to predict your weather.  By morning we look to West/Southwest Arizona in the Yuma forecast zones where the first thunderstorms are expected to show up.  So if you are in those areas, you will see them developing on your Monday morning.

As the day moves along the instability and upper divergent (lift area) of the upper level low will maximize over Arizona and a full on thunderstorm breakout is expected across much of the state’s metro zones.  The new lightning strike forecast model has red-shades in it and this is for thundersnow.  Being this system will bring snow with it to the White Mountains to Rim areas near Flagstaff, it is very likely you will see snow+lightning and thus thundersnow is born and it has been detected and publicly available to you in this article.  There is some risk of severe storms activity in the Tucson forecast area and that will further be monitored for any upgrade.

The rain model is showing that Western AZ will see 1-2″ of rain under the strongest cells and even some Northern Phoenix Valley areas.  The metros however of Phoenix and Tucson fall within the 0.50-1.00″ category.  I am looking in addition to you being in the Arizona Weather Force Thunderstorm Watch that Flood Advisory criteria will be met in both metro zones so I would expect some urban street flooding at times.

Snowfall will be rather light in the Flagstaff forecast areas with a slight nudge in storm trajectory over the last 24 hours.  The heaviest snow will remain in the White Mountain areas.  Use the snow model below for this.

The system backs out on Tuesday with the risk of left over thunderstorms in Southeastern Arizona.  More on that in later updates.  We are losing the next weekend system fast in long range numbers so at this time I will be removing this system to all but Northern Arizona for after the 14th and will work on the micro-climate e-mail alert system members only as the main Facebook Page is if the entire state, or most metros, will be affected.  If you haven’t signed up for that service which keeps this info flowing then the link is below –

As you know, just as Southern California Weather Force has a service for members with micro-climate alerts, Arizona Weather Force does as well and we do have some people already signed up getting those so it is seeming like it is helping.  The service helps businesses and persons, especially with ranches.  Click Here to read about it and even join.

NOTE: This is the SCWF Website but it is being used for national updates until ad placement is ready on the AZWF site. 
Your Facebook Page to join for this update is linked here – https://www.facebook.com/ArizonaWeatherForce