Arizona Weather Force has issued a statewide fire weather warning for gusty winds, low humidity, and warm temperatures for your Sunday and Monday along with a thunderstorm watch for the southeastern part of the state only effective today (Saturday) so to see the wind gust and monsoon forecast models read on …
First I will address the monsoon forecast model. This is another very brief intrusion of moisture in from Mexico being pulled up by an approaching upper level low crossing the state today. This upper system will provide the upper divergence (lift) across much of Southeast Arizona in the Tucson , Willcox, and Safford forecast areas today (Saturday). The cutoff of any shower/storm activity is the city of Tucson, with a lot more activity to the east of it where it was two weeks back. Use the official Arizona Weather Force Monsoon Model below for today’s details. Remember, the monsoon model is for development zones, not where the storms may cross. Storm movement is southwest to northeast across the area today and a Thunderstorm Watch is in effect …
This is a brief intrusion. A better one will be available the first week of July, however because of the Saharan Dust Cloud making it west of Mexico then, the development of the needed Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems will preclude monsoon moisture in any depth to help fire conditions. What moisture moves in will remain to have a fire risk due to dry lightning hazards.
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As for Sunday and Monday, a statewide fire weather warning has been issued here at Arizona Weather Force. Gusty winds, warm air, and dry conditions will move in behind the low pressure system. The wind gust model is as followed below so use that and the Martin Wind Gusty Intensity System for effects;
7. Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is considerable. – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over CERTAIN.
6. SOME Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is possible. – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Likely, Do NOT recommend Traveling in this zone
5. Slight damage occurs to buildings, shingles are blown off of roofs. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Possible if weight is not corrected.
4. Twigs and small branches are broken from trees, walking is difficult. Anything 4 and above will have blowing dust if conditions are dry, which does reduce visibility and make driving difficult …
3. Large trees sway, becoming difficult to walk. POWER SHUTDOWN THRESHOLD during any high fire risk. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA