Arizona Weather Force has issued a large scale Severe Weather Statement that spans from Yavapai, east along the entire Mogollon Rim and south through the Phoenix, Pinal County, and Tucson metro areas as AZWF models predict a favorable atmosphere for severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and moderate risk hail.
A ridge of high pressure directly over Phoenix today is bringing those awfully hot temperatures, with most of the valley over 110 degrees Fahrenheit. This is what I call a pre-monsoon pattern heat blast. Usually these occur right before major storms are set to hit the area. Storms need heat in the low-levels and the build up of such will release with event on your Saturday.
Overnight tonight, a gulf surge will set in. This southerly flow may make for gusty conditions overnight (mainly Saturday early morning). As Saturday moves along, storms will start forming along the Mogollon Rim communities. You know who you are if you live on that range. The range spans from Prescott to Pinetop/Eagar/Mt. Baldy, with Payson in the center. These storms will be forming in an environment favorable to push them to the south and west. These storms will latch onto a developing mid/upper level flow out of the north and east by the early evening and start heading on down into the lower deserts evening/early night. If you live in Pinal County, back in July a similar setup did happen. It looks similar to that flow and instability pattern with the damaging wind event.
Instability will be higher in Maricopa, Pinal and Pima County, including all metros in-between from Phoenix, Florence, Coolidge, Case Grande, and Tucson. As the storms head down, their outflow will increase. As the outflow increases, the downdraft instability gets stronger. Downdraft, or DCAPE values of 1500+ shows me there is a damaging wind scenario in the strongest cells. A number of you will see this event, but again, some of you can miss it by mere miles. That’s the roll of the dice during the monsoon. The flow does however favor areas the Northern half of Maricopa County, all of Pinal County, and Tucson westward. This is where the most instability will be present.
This Severe Weather Statement is issued when conditions are favorable in or around the statement area for organized severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds. It is not the AZWF official severe thunderstorm watch, that of which will be decided on Saturday morning sometime between 10am and 12pm.
THE FOLLOWING IMAGES ARE OF THE SEVERE RISK ZONES WITHIN THIS FORECAST – THEY ARE CLICKABLE
BONUS: For a bit of time I will allow non-members to see the member section of AZWF. During Fall, Winter, and Spring, the member section has zoom in models during events predicted. They are placed there in the tabs, this one is the heat model. It contains a zoom-able model so you know where you are on the map. Better yet, members can enter a city and address in the search bar and it zooms right down into that level. This is a medium resolution map, the other ones AZWF has at disposal have higher resolutions available during storm events from rain, wind, snow, and flood.
CLICK HERE TO ENTER THE MEMBER SECTION TO TRY IT OUT. Note, this does not include the e-mail alert system, just the visuals of the models provided.
If you like it… Click Here to become a full member and get those zoom in models + the e-mail alert system where you choose zones to receive custom alerts.
Get these alerts via your own e-mail control panel for your zone at 100% where social media IS NOT, or the closest to you as a full supporting member of this service that saves lives and property – here – https://arizonaweatherforce.com/azwf-discount-member-sign-up-page/
Join the Arizona Weather Force group for photos and pictures, and sometimes updates not posted on the main FB Page – here – https://www.facebook.com/groups/arizonaweatherforecasts
See ALL Active articles and alerts for Arizona here – https://arizonaweatherforce.com/
Arizona Weather Force is a custom weather alert service that began in September 2019 off of Southern California Weather Force and is regarded as the most accurate weather service in the state, offering custom alerts, maps, and models to help save life and property. The work done here is never 100% accurate, but it comes pretty close. Arizona Weather Force runs on zones, so if an event happens in a zone that is 10 miles from the border of your zone, the forecast is still valid to activate your zone’s alert system. A company quote to the public is that of “The Joker” and tells other agencies in weather this all the time… “This world deserves a better class of meteorologist… and I’m gonna give it to them”… out-forecasting even the National Weather Service with lead-time and precision, which makes this service a focus of ridicule and envy in the weather community due to having such accuracy. Alerts issued here are issued custom from this office and this office alone. You may not even hear it elsewhere, but if one is issued near or in your area, listen up because “if you do not wish to die in weather, follow, it’ll save your life one day.”
Meteorologist In Charge – – is a consulting meteorologist for over 50 different companies, including large oil companies like BP. He has certs from MSU and PSU as a meteorologist. Both short and long-range is very important to know in those jobs so you can bet on accuracy here. He is versed in fields like Western USA, Tornadoes, Floods, Hurricanes, High Winds, Fire Behavior, Snow and Blizzards, Short Range, Long Range, Seasonal, and Life-Threatening decisions with over 20 years experience, out-forecasting even the National Weather Service with lead-time and precision, which makes him a focus of ridicule and envy in the weather community due to having such accuracy.