2022 Monsoon Begins with First of Monsoon Dynamics to Arrive in Arizona; Centers June 18th; Hurricane Blas Forms in the Eastern Pacific


Hurricane Blas has formed as a category one with room to upgrade in the Eastern Pacific as we start the first day of the 2022 Monsoon Season with the up stick expected after Thursday so read on for details on if your area will be affected or not …

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This should be a relatively easy forecast in terms of picking the location of the worst activity.  Activity will start in Southeast Arizona by Thursday, finally affecting the eastern half of the state by Friday.  As more moisture and dynamics pours in from a tropical wave north of Hurricane Blas, Saturday looks to be the main day for the moisture to make it further west, even to the Colorado River Valley in some cases.

Saturday morning is when we have upper lift move into the entire state, which means that this lift could easily bring hit and miss showers and thunderstorms to anyone, even the Colorado River Valley.  You in that area will not have a flooding scenario and you never were expected of it.  As with the previous update video, the flood dynamics will certainly be the eastern half of the state.  Right now, the strongest flood hazard would be the Globe forecast area.  So, if you are in Gila County then this would be something to watch for on Saturday.  Likely will need flood alerts and maybe even severe thunderstorm watches.

The moisture would be focused and driven up by an upper level low over California working with the ridge of high pressure over Texas/Oklahoma.  Being the state would be between there, I do see fast moving cells at times and this would promote a hail/damaging wind scenario in the highest risk areas, possibly even a short-lived tornado setup in the strongest cells given the shear available over the weekend.

We seem to have other shots of moisture through the end of the month.  We are only getting started, June is not known for the month where we get what we will be seeing, even as far west as the Colorado River Valley, but that bodes well with my previous thought that July would be a strong month to come so like I said in the previous video, the key is turning in the atmospheric ignition with each passing week.

Daily forecast updates will happen, and the correct alerts will be issued when that time comes so stay tuned to Arizona Weather Force –

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