July 18, 2022 at 6:30 am

WARNING: Hurricane Estelle to Enhance Arizona Monsoon with Major Increase in Storms After July 23rd


Hurricane Estelle is far south, but the effects she will give to Western Mexico will boost the Arizona Monsoon up over 300% by the weekend of the 23rd and into early week of the 25th, which if you are reading this is yet another longer-range forecast so read on for the details …

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As we near July 23rd-24th we will see a major upswing in activity in Western Mexico due to Hurricane Estelle’s outflow, bringing upper dynamics and deep-layer moisture into the region. Because the ridge of high pressure migrates eastward, a strong southeasterly flow will develop, which will be the driving force of the coming event.

This is when we will see similar to last year in July and August where tropical systems south of Arizona brought major severe storms and flooding.  This will be a repeat event with numerous metro impacts from the Rim to Phoenix, Phoenix to Tucson with Pinal County in between.  The center of the activity will be where the most populated areas of the state will be, so you need to prepare for this.

NOTE:  The above graphic is not the track of the actual hurricane, but it is the track of the strongest dynamics/moisture plume from her.  Regardless, this will bring higher than hurricane force winds so it would not matter once the storms hit.

Arizona Weather Force will continue to bring the latest during those times, including any official custom alerts over the page, group, or the community supported e-mail alert system you can sign-up for freely below so stay tuned as this is another longer-range forecast, which AZWF is fully capable of producing so you know to prepare ahead of time.

This was a follow-up to the following articles – You can read them and see how this forecast is evolving from Day 1.

June 1, 2022
FINAL MONSOON FORECAST: Southwestern United States Monsoon Forecast Finalized as Stronger Than Normal; FREE Memberships Now Open

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