The heat is building in the Southwest Desert, normal for this time of year. Arizona’s low terrain will be pushing those 110F and higher temperatures again as we move through the first part of July with the first monsoon heat burst projected by July 9th, after the first ridge on July 1st develops.
A monsoonal heat burst happens when the loss of the Pacific Systems happens, which weakens the westerlies and begins building an offshore southeasterly flow out of Mexico.
What looks to happen is that around mid-July is when we will start to see the hint of Western Mexico flaring up with storms. These storms will form due to tropical disturbances off the country, which is what will fuel the coming Eastern Pacific Hurricane season. When thunderstorms form in Western Mexico, the southeast flow pushes outflow boundaries from them into Arizona and this is what starts the monsoon season.
We had a tease in May where May acted like July and August and June was acting like May. Except the building heat before the season starts being active, we remain on track. I will mention the 2021 monsoon season started in July as well with a dry June. Most monsoon seasons start in July and go from there, first in southeast state and then moving up to the rest of the population.
When I have another update I will share it, but until the monsoon starts, updates will be far apart as you have seen.
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