Arizona Weather Force has issued the final update to the 2023 Arizona Monsoon Season.  This forecast goes against NOAA for the 3rd time in calling opposite of their thoughts.

NOAA decided because El Nino is present that the Arizona Monsoon will be way below normal.  We are starting to see the effects of this monsoon now in Southeastern Arizona with the storm dynamics upping there.  A couple of tropical systems will form within the next 7-10 day period.  As this happens, the current ridge of high pressure will be pushed into Utah and Nevada.  A northeast flow around it will ensure storms will form off the Mogollon Rim and finally shove southwest into Tucson and especially Phoenix’s forecast area in that period.

Between then and through August especially will be where we will see a good monsoon season ensuring.

My only concern is this.  Why is NOAA continuing to do the same thing?  El Nino does not mean it will act the same all the time.  A good scientist does not repeat the same experiment twice, expecting different results.  Their call last winter was for below average precipitation due to La Nina.  I went above normal and against the odds.  El Nino and La Nina do not mean much other than a chess piece to the entire terra system’s dynamics.

So for the rest of you, the timing is on time and I will maintain the average to above average monsoon with highly dynamic storms hitting, metros included.

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