August 7, 2023 at 8:58 am

Severe Thunderstorm Watch


Issued Zones:  Cochise, Santa Cruz, Apache, and Navajo County … Eastern Pima County … 

Site:  Arizona Weather Force has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch effective later this morning through this later evening …

Date:  8/7/23 at 9:00am PT

Forecast: An upper-level ridge of high pressure will be centered in Northwest Mexico, with a flow around it affecting two zones of Arizona this later morning, afternoon, and evening hours.  I will go ahead and outline these zones right now. 

The first zone will start earlier than the second zones.   A west to east flow across Navajo and Apache County will be present.  Monsoon moisture and lifting within the northern periphery of the ridge of high pressure to the south will pop off thunderstorms.  These thunderstorms will be severe across the watch area, especially around Saint Johns’ forecast zone.   One thing I will say is these will be in the high country, and Show Low should miss this event as you will be south of the convergence boundary.   High winds and large hail, along with some flooding will be likely.  

The second zone will be in Southeast Arizona, mostly starting in the afternoon hours and going well into the evening hours.  This is when Cochise County will see widespread severe thunderstorm activity.  Douglas has missed out on a lot of storms this season thus far; however, this is the type of pattern that will bring you the storms you normally get.  As for Tucson, this should stop just at the I-10 and I-19 within the area, but you will be added to the zone notification for this.  This will be mostly to you southeast …

Damaging winds and large hail will be likely, along with areas of flooding.  Some of these storms will continue into the night hours with bouncing outflow boundaries, especially in Southern Cochise County.

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10 mile rule:  These alerts issued on this site
means that within your zone and 10 miles from you will see the event
forecast for.  You may or may not see the event but it means you are in
the zone or 10 miles from where someone will.

Master Meteorologist:  Raiden Storm