Arizona Weather Force has issued an Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Watch in what will be the strongest monsoon push of the now late season, effective for Pinal, Maricopa, Yavapai, and Mohave County today through the overnight and into Friday morning …
An upper-level low off the California coast is bringing in tropical moisture in from Mexico, which is the monsoon flow. This southeast to northwest flow was what was predicted last week here at Arizona Weather Force and will be around for a couple days (Reference A Below). Given the upper divergence (lift and dynamics) of this system, colder air aloft with the lack of a strong ridge will bring fast developing thunderstorms.
Downdraft instability suggests storms will form near Tucson but maximize in intensity through Pinal County this evening before heading to Prescott later in the evening and again overnight with multiple rounds into Friday morning. This will also go through the following Arizona Weather Force zones; Maricopa, Casa Grande, San Tan Valley, Chandler and Mesa, Phoenix Metro, New River, Surprise, Wittman, Wickenburg, Bagdad, Prescott, Chino Valley, Kingman, some of Parker/Havasu, Kingman direct, and Bullhead City.
So again, expect large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado window with storms out of the southeast during the watch period. Remember, if you get missed during an evening round, you will get hit Friday morning …
We will have another round on Friday, which I will take care of as this event is on-going …
Reference A Link – https://www.facebook.com/ArizonaWeatherForce/posts/pfbid0gkJxDsLVjMh6veH819JRb3xdrgHscU1p2zJ5151s5mCAfJJEcPGzTJSGkndGbacAl
Master General Meteorologist – Raiden Storm
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