September 25, 2023 at 8:20 am

Preliminary El Nino Forecast for the Southwestern United States for the 2023-2024 Season: Extreme Cold Projected


The 2022-2023 Strong La Nina brought above average rainfall to the Southwestern United States.  This was not typical of a La Nina but was fully predicted here at the weather force.  Now we have a Strong El Nino and what this one will do is on a lot of minds.

A typical El Nino has warmer than normal temperatures along with above average precipitation.  A lot of people are thinking that it would be a record-breaking rainfall season just because of an El Nino.  As you know, during the fall, winter, and spring season I shine as going against the most a lot of the time.  While it is El Nino, the season I am currently thinking will be a hybrid El Nino, similar to a hybrid La Nina like the last season.  This means that it will act like both El Nino and La Nina.

For this season, I’ll be going way back into the past.  I will be giving this a similarity to the 1912-1913 season for the Southwestern United States.

That season ended up with extremely cold temperatures for all the months combined, from September to March.  Given that, the season will be much colder than normal, and I will be going with near normal precipitation as that result.  I will not go with way above average like a typical El Nino, but the combination of extremely cold temperatures and average precipitation bolds to be a very interesting season to come.

For the short term, we will remain to be below normal in temperatures for this time of year with an active jet stream into October, with windy conditions in the mountains and deserts.  Given the high pressure in the Northern Pacific, we remain with the cooler than average door open for the time being.

So, in conclusion, we likely will have a crippling freezing season where a lot of crops will be lost across the Southwestern United States, on the order of the freeze of 1913.

Master General Meteorologist – Raiden Storm

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