Arizona Weather Force has issued the final forecast for the 2023-2024 winter season for the state of Arizona, and it will be anything but a normal El Nino.
El Nino is the warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean from South America to near Australia. The last strong El Nino we had like this was the 1997-1998 season, however does El Nino really work the way ‘they’ say? I will tell you now that both El Nino and La Nina do not work how you think.
Just because an El Nino is called does not mean El Nino means more rain for the Southwestern United States. Just last year, I called La Nina to be above average in rainfall and every other thought it would be drier and look what happened.
I see a season where we have a very strong Eastern Canadian low and a strong ridge of high pressure in the Northeast Pacific Ocean between Alaska and Washington State.
This combination will bring a strong northwest to southeast jet out of the north and provide the Desert Southwest with extremely cold temperatures as an average, even having record low temperatures across the entire state, the coldest will off course be Flagstaff, where records will be broken. The next city in line for record breaking temperatures will be the Prescott forecast zone.
In Addition to this pattern, rogue storms within the pattern would set up across Southern California and then move south into Northern Mexico, which will put this season average for Phoenix and above average in precipitation for Tucson, and areas north being average to below.
That is the forecast for Arizona, which again is way different than what El Nino should provide according to records. However, I’ve said this before ‘they’ (NOAA idgits) base El Nino and La Nina off the strong events of 97-98 and 98-99, with no real research on other years.
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Master General Meteorologist: Raiden Storm