Long Range Weather Advisory Update: Mid-November Storm Risk Assessment


Arizona Weather Force has issued an update status of the coming system with a narrowed window from November 14th to 18th to November later 15th to 18th.

Back on November 5th, the official long range weather advisory was issued here at Arizona Weather Force.  (See reference A below).

A storm system will bring a pineapple express to California, with Arizona being on the tail-end Charlie section of it, starting November 15th.  This southerly flow will keep snow-levels high, so do not expect mountain snow with it.  We will have to wait till colder systems of December through March move in for snowfall.

As you can see from the latest risk assessment model here at Arizona Weather Force, the moderate risk extends across the rim areas, with notable moving through the Phoenix to Tucson Metro zones.  This means that southerly flow (orographic lifting) ahead of it will be present, but it does not look like a ‘slam dunk system’ like California will get.  Risks will likely remain in the moderate section with a small area of high-risk in the rim area possibly showing up on the AZWF model in the next couple of days.

The zones will also have gusty winds with this system during those days, along the frontal zone.  This will bring trees down in spots, so it is best to make sure the trees around you are not of any danger of falling over.

Arizona Weather Force will continue to monitor this pattern in what is known as a Raiden Storm Pattern, a pattern called in the long range before any other sources or apps saw it.

Reference A – https://arizonaweatherforce.com/2023/11/05/long-range-weather-advisory-first-pacific-storm-of-the-season-for-arizona/

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10 mile rule:  These alerts issued on this site
means that within your zone and 10 miles from you will see the event
forecast for.  You may or may not see the event but it means you are in
the zone or 10 miles from where someone will.

Master General Meteorologist:  Raiden Storm