May 2024 has been averaging in temperatures so far for the state of Arizona as a lack of ridging persists, and June 2024 will be the change.
For the first half of June 2024, I am expecting much of the same, with troughs and cutoffs for the region southwest of Southern California. This continued pattern is the reason for the tornadoes out east in tornado alley. Some of these cutoff lows will be strong enough to bring some mid-level moisture across the state by mid-month, which coincides with the start of monsoon season. The start of monsoon season has been set at June 15th.
Storms from Western Mexico will develop by mid-month and combine with the cutoff lows west of the region to bring their moisture northwestward. This should bring the first monsoon season storms to the north and eastern half of the state. Since it is still early in the season, this also warrants the risk of fires as the low levels will not be saturated. Fire season should remain on track, which usually starts and elevates in June anyhow.
June 2024 will be average in temperatures, hot at times through the last half, and drier than normal as a result. Monsoon season still looks to be average to below average from my standpoint.
– Raiden Storm –
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Master General Meteorologist – is the Owner and CEO of AZWF, a consulting meteorologist with over 26 years’ experience for over 50 companies, including energy, agriculture, aviation, marine, leisure, and many more areas. He has certs from Mississippi State for broadcast met and Penn State forecasting certs MET 101, 241, 341 and 361 as a meteorologist, but before then was completely self-taught, barely learning a thing from the schools that he did not already know.
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