Arizona Weather Force has issued a Flood Watch and Monitoring Zone Forecast effective Friday, June 27th, 2025 for the first week of July, for the following zones;
Issued Sectors:
Arizona Sector
Issued Zones: Pima,Santa Cruz, and Cochise County, including Tucson Metro
Date Issued: June 27th, 2025 at 9:45am PDT
Watch Discussion: Developing tropical activity south of the area will bring the dynamics for increasing moisture out of Mexico. This moisture will arrive during the first week of July, with a target of July 2nd through July 6th. Rapidly developing severe thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rainfall within a short period of time. The peak of this will be around later 2nd through July 4th, which puts Independence Day activities at risk.
REST OF ARIZONA: While this official Flood Watch is going to start in Pima, Santa Cruz, and Cochise County, trends will continue to be monitored for convective (thunderstorm) activity for areas around Pinal, Maricopa, Yavapai, Coconino, Navajo, Apache, Gila, Graham, and Greenlee Counties. Additional forecast updates will be available as we get closer to the flood watch window, in order to expand alerts. For now, the shaded light blue zone is the monitoring zone for additional upgrades.
This is a Raiden Storm Pattern (See Reference A).
A Flood Watch is issued at Arizona Weather Force when conditions are possible for storms, bringing high rainfall rates in a short period of time, covering over 50% of the watch zone. A Flood Watch can be replaced by a convective watch, such as a Thunderstorm, Severe Thunderstorm, or Tornado Watch during the morning of the event. Flood Watches at Arizona Weather Force are private, issued ahead of time to the public by AZWF as the lead-time is extremely important to you.
Reference A – Increased Monsoon Flow Across Most of Arizona; Monitoring Around Independence Day For Elevated Thunderstorm Risks
Link – https://arizonaweatherforce.com/2025/06/24/increased-monsoon-flow-across-most-of-arizona-monitoring-around-independence-day-for-elevated-thunderstorm-risks/
Raiden Storm
Master General Meteorologist