Arizona Weather Force has been monitoring a developing system for over a week now, down south and west of mainland Mexico. Lorena is officially expected to make impacts on Arizona by the end of the week, with life-threatening and deadly consequences to anyone ignoring it.
THE INITIAL FORECAST CALL: Back on August 28th, 2025, an article was released at Arizona Weather Force. The article outlined the possibility of either the name Kiko or Lorena developing, which could become a threat to the Southwestern United States, in terms of deep moisture flow and upper dynamics. A lot of people gave flack on the forecast and stated it wouldn’t happen and that it is fear mongering. Well, look at what we have here on the article image (satellite) compared to the forecast from August 28th.
Link to August 28th first call – https://arizonaweatherforce.com/2025/08/30/eastern-pacific-hurricane-dynamics-to-revamp-monsoon-across-arizona-week-of-september-1st-2025-powerful-storms-expected/
The reason for this forecast being such a long range forecast for this pattern is the very fact that Arizona Weather Force expected this to be a hurricane when NOAA did not. When it formed, it was only suppose to be a tropical storm. This would allow it to be influenced by the larger scale high and low pressure systems to the north, and shear it away eastward to New Mexico or Texas. Numbers here at Arizona Weather Force did not show that. They showed strengthening to either category 1 or even category 2 before hitting Baja, Mexico. A higher category would mean the curve eastward would take longer, similar to a left-hand bowling ball hook into the pocket. Heavier the ball, the slower the curve to the right.
HIGH RISK FLOOD WATCH: Armed with that prediction, a High Risk Flood Watch was issued at Arizona Weather Force on September 1st, 2025. This marked the high probability that Hurricane Lorena would impact Arizona with more than just scattered thunderstorms. It would impact parts of the state with life-threatening, and deadly flooding in-which some would be caught off guard. Those that follow Arizona Weather Force would not be caught off-guard. Those that oppose the weather force forecast will be.
Link to High Risk Flood Watch – https://arizonaweatherforce.com/2025/09/01/warning-high-risk-flooding-expected-across-much-of-arizona-as-soon-to-be-hurricane-lorena-makes-her-move-thursday-to-saturday/
With that being said, continue to monitor the latest forecast updates here at Arizona Weather Force. Additional daily updates will be made, but one thing is for certain, Hurricane Lorena will leave a lasting impact on many of you.
Raiden Storm
Master General Meteorologist
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