June 28, 2021 at 4:10 pm

Today Starts The Arizona Metro Storm Risk; Tuesday Gets Worse, and The Real Moisture After That through Wednesday and Thursday; Details


Today will be the start of the return of the monsoonal moisture into most of the state.  The Arizona Weather Force Monsoon Forecast Model shows risk areas daily on what to expect in development.  It does lack storm movement and focuses on development from outflow boundaries.  As such, a number of alerts are embedded in this article so read on for details …

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FORECAST:  The skies are very clear across the state of Arizona today.  Instability will be allowed to build as a result.  Storm flow is out of the north as an easterly wave starts to take shape southeast of the AZ/NM/MX Border.  We could see some stronger cells producing flooding in Safford/Clifton’s forecast area, south to most of Southeast Arizona, but today is not as ‘juicy’ as after Tuesday will bring.  Today’s dynamics will work like this.

The first storm will pop up somewhere around Mt. Baldy, in Extreme Southern Apache County on the Easternmost peak of the Mogollon Rim.  This will furthermore develop additional activity south of there through the Safford/Clifton forecast areas.  Safford should get a good dose of thunderstorms today. Outflow from all those storms will go south and east, one heading for Tucson / Cochise County, the other to Gila County.  This will ignite storms in all those areas in about the locations the model image below shows.

What is interesting about the model is it is showing the Phoenix Valley in a yellow shade Phoenix eastward and a green shade for Phoenix westward, including Wickenburg/New River.  This is telling me that outflow from the Mogollon Rim will likely move into the valley and use up the instability there.  As it does so, pop-up showers OR thunderstorms will be likely this evening in that location.

The model indicates that overnight activity will be possible in Yavapai County as well, with a north-to-south movement from there through another round in Wickenburg being possible again.

Some storms this afternoon/evening in Gila, Greenlee, Graham, Apache, and Cochise Counties will have a chance of being marginally severe, however, a thunderstorm watch in those spots will suffice.


Monsoon Thunderstorm Risk Initiation Zone Model – Noon today through midnight – or day/evening of 6–28-2021
(Image is clickable)


TUESDAY – Tuesday is when more moisture comes in out of the north.  Overnight/Morning activity through Las Vegas will send a strong outflow boundary southward, which will impact the Mogollon Rim and areas south into the metro areas of Arizona, including Phoenix and Tucson again.  This will have a more widespread event … After Tuesday, we do it all over again, but more and more deep moisture continues to be pumped into Arizona as Enrique moves through Baja, California, spreading deep mid moisture northward with time.  We should start to see the burn zones being relieved after Tuesday, starting on Wednesday.

Here at Arizona Weather Force, it takes me many hours to do a forecast for the day.  I will be doing daily updates in the morning, including running the model for monsoonal thunderstorm risks by development area so while the article is vague, you will get the fine details each morning for the day and coming night if applicable.  That is the goal of my model development process.

My question was… is it possible to have a daily model showing the thunderstorm risk/strength during the Arizona Monsoon Season? It’s never been done before so I enjoy challenges. So what does this mean? It means that a daily outlook for risk zones will be possible in the very near future. We know that sometimes the monsoon delivers severe storms to Payson and not Prescott… but the next day it could be Prescott having severe storms and Payson not … It switches a lot … and this new model will be able to predict it. It’s 95% calibrated for the season. I hope this helps a number of people, even with rural weather blackout zones no one else really covers. Current forecasts and apps just give you a % chance… my model will give you a 90%+ accuracy on thunderstorm risk/strength –
This was the Thunderstorm Watch from the modelhttps://arizonaweatherforce.com/2021/06/27/thunderstorm-watch-5/
See ALL active alerts from AZWF in Arizona here

In any case, continue to monitor Arizona Weather Force forecasts each day to know what to expect.  This isn’t the only intrusion this week, a good chunk of July will have MULTIPLE deep moisture intrusions.  It is only the start of Monsoon Season and ON AVERAGE July 4th marks the start.  Stay tuned to Arizona Weather Force however you receive these articles and alerts, be it the Facebook Page (Click here),  Facebook Group (Click here), or the premium member e-mail alert system by micro-climate zone (Click here) –


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