July 5, 2021 at 8:03 pm

Strong Monsoon Surge To Return To Arizona Between July 8th and 15th; Metros Included Within That Window; Full Details Within

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Arizona Weather Force has issued a Special Weather Statement effective between July 8th and July 15th for the return of the mid-latitude ridge that will bring deep moisture and dynamics for severe weather across most of the state between July 8th and 15th.  Do not just read the headline, get into the article, and get the precise details and location days on what to expect within this 7-day window.  I just write the details it is up to you to read and understand them so read on …

First of all, I will be as calm as I possibly can because this happens a lot in the weather.  I will reiterate what I have said for years.  Just because YOUR AREA DID NOT GET SOMETHING when my forecast said the ZONE would, does NOT mean that others nearby did not.  Case in point, near Tucson we had a major micro-burst a few days back.  Some of you were on the dry side of it, but it was within my forecast zone, which is up to 10 miles usually from the border of the e-mail alert system zones.  Now, another example is Mesa.  Some in Mesa did not see a thing with the last event.  Is that my fault?  You do realize that only 10 miles from you they had 3/4″ of rainfall.  That is still considered in your zone.  My forecasts are not for so and so number address so and so street backyard your lawn/pool chair.  The last event was nailed perfectly, calling for metro activity within that window for the end month to the first part of July.   The rules of my page/group are as followed (Click here) – There are 8 and a major one.  Those have to be given because it is obvious some do not understand how weather works by zone.

Furthermore, Tucson confirmed a landspout TORNADO within my window.  You can read that article here – This was within my forecast of the window that the dynamics would be enough to produce them.  Again, correct both article and video …


NOW ONTO THE FORECAST: – 

The forecast graphic in this article goes from July 8th to July 15th.  It shows at SOME POINT or VARIOUS DAYS that these areas will see storm activity enough to warrant my special weather statement.  So can I pinpoint those dates?  It’s possible I can so read carefully –

Phoenix Zone – Off the mountains from the north/northeast on July 8th, 9th, 11th, 12th, 13th, and 14th.  The strongest surges would be July 12th through the 14th.

Tucson Zone – Off The mountains from the north/northeast on July 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, the strongest surges would be July 11th through the 14th

Payson Zone – July 8th, 9th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, the strongest surges would be July 12th through the 15th

Prescott Zone – July 8th, 9th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, the strongest surges would be July 8th and 9th, then again July 11th and 12th

Flagstaff Zone – July 9th, 12th, 13th, 15th, the strongest surge would be July 12th and 13th

Kingman Zone – July 9th, 10th, 11th, the strongest surge would be July 9th

Areas like the White Mountains will see it daily so no need to add you.

All those dates are approximately the focus dates, so if you are near one of those zones, now you know.  Of course, I will be on hand each of those days for severe thunderstorm watches if needed.  Some of those focus days are flood days as well.  This is all going accordingly to my July 2021 forecast for the state, CLEARLY showing what is happening thus far and you can Click Here if you missed that.  Keep in mind that Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport picked up 0.25″ of rain with the last surge.  This zone has 0.3 to 1.1″ of rainfall on average for July.  We will easily hit within that mark, well within it by the time this next week of monsoonal dynamics is over.

LONG RANGE:  We start to take a break after the 15th or so and most of the storms shove into the high terrain, much like what we are seeing today through Wednesday across the state.


 

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