Tropical Storm Nora is set to become a hurricane by tomorrow (Saturday) and is steaming northwest toward the Cabo San Lucus areas. If that was my jurisdiction they would be issued a Hurricane Watch right now, pending a warning on Saturday as Nora is expected to hit very near or directly on the Southern Baja Peninsula later Sunday into Monday before curving right for Arizona as a weakening, but potent impacted tropical system mid-this next week.
This is the type of pattern that will kill anyone not prepared for it and/or does not listen to the warnings I give ahead of time. Other patterns have done that this Summer, especially with the deadly impacts on Gila Bend and Globe. Most areas are not going to be prepared for the type of flooding to come so you have to take this one seriously. We have not seen a pattern like this from a tropical system making a directly impact on the state since Hurricane Nora during the El Nino start of 1997.
As such, Arizona Weather Force has officially issued a Flash Flood Watch effective now, centering Tuesday through Friday of this next week. Lead-time on this forecast has been consistent for many days now. This is the system I have been waiting for all Summer to maintain and even elevate the reasoning my summer forecast (Click here) stated this would be the hurricane battleground year where hurricanes/tropical systems impact the weather across the state the most.
Previous Arizona Weather Force flood risk models have been indicating a high risk category for the Tuesday through Friday time period of this next week. As stated in my only video forecast I made and probably will only need for this event, that high risk zone would turn from high risk to highest risk, and it has done that. In just 24 hours it has escalated, which means that in the next 24 hours it very well may move up to the category I do not have often, the ‘deadly or extreme’ (magenta color) category.
In the meantime, the AZWF High Heat Warning is still active and set to wan down over the weekend as we get more surface level moisture into the region, ending the ‘dry heat’ and bringing the temperatures down below the seasonal norms in preparation of Nora.
For today (Friday 8-27-2021) storms will be confined yet again to the eastern half of the state. Flooding will be likely in the Mt. Baldy/Eagar areas in Southern Apache County due to the elevation being closer to the cloud-bases, which still remain pretty high (over 10,000 FT)… Hit and miss severe storms from there through Pima County will be likely once again.
For Saturday, as Nora glides northwestward, as does the moisture. Saturday’s storms impacts will be along the entire rim where today will be the eastern part of it. Saturday will have impacts on Heber/Overgaard , Strawberry/Payson and as far west as introducing Yavapai County and Prescott into the thunderstorm risks. In that case, the steering flow will reintroduce storms into the Northeast Maricopa County areas such as Cave Creek/Rio Verde, and Sunflower.
As Sunday onward moves along this is when we continue to see that increase in storms across the state … and then the AZWF Flash Flood Watch activates Tuesday through Friday …
That is the agenda I’m putting for the region. I will update more often as the events unfold. As for the severe thunderstorm watches, you have TWO ways to get them. Get on the premium micro-climate e-mail alert service (click here) or get to the AZWF FB group as ALL alerts no matter where in the state are posted there, but not on the main AZWF FB page. There is a difference from the main page to the main group.
LONG RANGE: Long range pattern through the month indicates the state will still be in a shooting gallery as tropical systems continue to develop in the Pacific Basin.
As always, Stay tuned to Arizona Weather Force for future updates –
BONUS: For a bit of time I will allow non-members to see the member section of AZWF. During Fall, Winter, and Spring, the member section has zoom in models during events predicted. They are placed there in the tabs, this one is the heat model. It contains a zoom-able model so you know where you are on the map. Better yet, members can enter a city and address in the search bar and it zooms right down into that level. This is a medium resolution map, the other ones AZWF has at disposal have higher resolutions available during storm events from rain, wind, snow, and flood.
CLICK HERE TO ENTER THE MEMBER SECTION TO TRY IT OUT. Note, this does not include the e-mail alert system, just the visuals of the models provided.
If you like it… Click Here to become a full member and get those zoom in models + the e-mail alert system where you choose zones to receive custom alerts.
Get these alerts via your own e-mail control panel for your zone at 100% where social media IS NOT, or the closest to you as a full supporting member of this service that saves lives and property – here – https://arizonaweatherforce.com/azwf-discount-member-sign-up-page/
Join the Arizona Weather Force group for photos and pictures, and sometimes updates not posted on the main FB Page – here – https://www.facebook.com/groups/arizonaweatherforecasts
See ALL Active articles and alerts for Arizona here – https://arizonaweatherforce.com/
Arizona Weather Force is a custom weather alert service that began in September 2019 off of Southern California Weather Force and is regarded as the most accurate weather service in the state, offering custom alerts, maps, and models to help save life and property. The work done here is never 100% accurate, but it comes pretty close. Arizona Weather Force runs on zones, so if an event happens in a zone that is 10 miles from the border of your zone, the forecast is still valid to activate your zone’s alert system. A company quote to the public is that of “The Joker” and tells other agencies in weather this all the time… “This world deserves a better class of meteorologist… and I’m gonna give it to them”… out-forecasting even the National Weather Service with lead-time and precision, which makes this service a focus of ridicule and envy in the weather community due to having such accuracy. Alerts issued here are issued custom from this office and this office alone. You may not even hear it elsewhere, but if one is issued near or in your area, listen up because “if you do not wish to die in weather, follow, it’ll save your life one day.”
Meteorologist In Charge – – is a consulting meteorologist for over 50 different companies, including large oil companies like BP. He has certs from MSU and PSU as a meteorologist. Both short and long-range is very important to know in those jobs so you can bet on accuracy here. He is versed in fields like Western USA, Tornadoes, Floods, Hurricanes, High Winds, Fire Behavior, Snow and Blizzards, Short Range, Long Range, Seasonal, and Life-Threatening decisions with over 20 years experience, out-forecasting even the National Weather Service with lead-time and precision, which makes him a focus of ridicule and envy in the weather community due to having such accuracy.