December 22, 2021 at 10:23 am

Storm System To Affect Arizona On Christmas Eve; Flood Watch Issued Along With Rainfall Amount Forecasts

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Arizona Weather Force has issued a Flood Watch ahead of a storm system expected on Christmas Eve, which includes the Mogollon Rim areas from Prescott, Payson through to the AZ/NM Border, Phoenix Metro, and some of Northern Pinal County along with a preliminary rainfall forecast so read on for details and view the AZWF rainfall forecast images …

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A warm system that will affect the Southern California Weather Force forecast area on Thursday and Thursday night will affect Arizona on Friday, Christmas Eve.  Rainfall amounts were calculated along with the rainfall in a short period of time and thus the AZWF Flood Watch was officially issued.  The Flood Watch model for the affected areas is below this write-up.

The thinking is this system has deeper-layer moisture.  The rainfall will make it over Southern California’s Riverside/San Diego County Mountains.  As it does so, rainfall will indeed hit most of the state, with good amounts for this time of year even along the Colorado River Valley, without much influence from the rain-shadow effect of the Southern California Mountains.  The southwesterly flow will be where the rain amounts will add up.  Areas along the Mogollon Rim with snow-levels to 8,000 FT makes this a warm system with no accumulating snowfall other than areas at and above that level.  You’ll certainly see all snow for the Sunrise Ski Resort though, but since it is in a small area, the flood watch will cover it.  In reality, it would be a winter storm watch in that small ski resort zone for Christmas Eve.

Christmas should be drier and I do not expect precipitation across the state then.  We however will have colder systems this next week, and the entire rim from Payson/Prescott/Show Low etc will have snow on the ground, making this year a non-white Christmas – but a White New Years Eve/Day …

So that is the reason for me going higher with the rainfall amount forecast below.  Please keep scrolling below for these images.

These maps in this article are also on the Member Section GPS where you can see where you on within them, even while driving during the day/night of the valid event – If you like the GPS feature, consider getting a membership this season.  AZWF Members, click below to enter…
Click Here for the GPS Member Section

Below are the AZWF models in the form of rain, snow, and wind, snow-levels, or whatever is available for this forecast.  They are clickable.  Image 1 is NW AZ, 2 is NE AZ, 3 is SW AZ, and 4 is SE AZ –

Flood Watch Zone Visual – Valid Christmas Eve


Rain Forecast – Valid Christmas Eve


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ARIZONA WEATHER FORCE MAIN:  Arizona Weather Force Office Main Page For updates

These maps in this article are also on the Member Section GPS that is open to the public until this storm has passed, then it goes to members only.  If you like the GPS feature, consider getting a membership this season.
Click Here for the GPS Member Section


LONG RANGE:  With the ridge shoved west to north of Hawaii, the door remains open for storm after storm through the end of the month for the region so stay tuned for updates …


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