February 9, 2022 at 10:52 am

Long Range Outlook Projects Colder Storm System To Move Across Arizona After Valentine’s Day 2022; A Look At The 2022 Monsoon Season


A flip of the weather patterns looks to be in the cards for the state of Arizona as the ridge of high pressure currently across the area finally breaks down and moves to the west along with the first outlook of your 2022 Monsoon Season, so read on for details …

This is the first outlook of the system and it will be updated on as time moves closer, but what I see in the numbers is the ridge of high pressure being forced westward as it weakens.  As this happens, systems now missing to the northeast (a reason for all the wind over the last week or so) will be allowed to ride the jet stream southeastward down into Eastern Southern California’s Desert.  Upper level lows crossing such an area does put the state of Arizona into the active weather sector.

What I do not know is the strength, but it is a classic pattern where metro Southern California gets missed more so than Arizona, something that has been common over the last month.  This also means that for the month of February, the eastern half of Arizona will have above average precipitation, especially with this coming system.  Any systems after it would also up those rain/snowfall numbers.

So, if you are planning something for after February 14th, keep an eye on future forecasts here at Arizona Weather Force

2022 Monsoon Season 1st Outlook – With a calming La Nina and going into neither La Nina or El Nino, I expect yet again an above average Hurricane Season in the Pacific Ocean, which translates the real possibility that the Monsoon will once again be above average … The final outlook will be given toward June, but you have your pre-outlook and may very well have a similar season to last year if the trends continue …

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