A weakening La Nina Pattern suggest that the 2022 monsoon season will be a stronger one yet again so read on for details as absolutely nothing has changed since my initial prediction last year on this … Since Arizona Weather Force went above average last year for the monsoon and the others in the field did not, it is a wise decision to continue to follow the future forecasts as the storms start.  This May 2022 update is the last update before the FINAL forecast update in June …

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ARIZONA WEATHER FORCE MAIN:

FROM PREVIOUS MONTH’S DISCUSSION

Back-to-back monsoon seasons that are as strong as the 2021 season are extremely rare.  However, projections are that a weakening La Nina will keep the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season above average again, similar to last year.  The early numbers of mine suggests that it will extend further west as well into Southern California more-so than last year.  The combination of a strong Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season (my numbers) and a four corners ridge bringing the Eastern Pacific Hurricanes northwest, southwest of Cabo, suggests strong upper dynamics from both the Gulf of Mexico activity and the Eastern Pacific Activity.

Some of my numbers suggest that it will start earlier in the states than usual.  Monsoon season is not by dew point anymore but the dates are set from June 15th through September 30th each year.  We rarely see a good surge in June, but this year looks like an exception as the monsoon should be an earlier start.

Given the state of the current La Nina, we probably will even see Southeast Arizona starting the monsoon pattern earlier than June, possibly even in May.  The strongest months will be July and August but leaning on July or August I’ll lean toward July at this time.