Arizona Weather Force has issued a Severe Weather Statement for the Phoenix, Prescott, and Payson forecast zones. This Severe Weather Statement is the second to final stage in issuing a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, usually issued the day before the main event is expected so read on for details if you are in those areas.
Friday’s dynamics in the statement area will make today look like child’s play, especially for Prescott / Chino Valley. I am still expecting storms in the metros today and that article is here, but I will be giving you a heads up on Friday – https://arizonaweatherforce.com/2023/05/18/thunderstorm-watch-issued-for-most-of-arizona-including-all-metro-zones-today-into-tonight/
A classic Mogollon Rim event is being monitored here at Arizona Weather Force. An event like this is when northeasterly flow off the Mogollon Rim is strong enough to send strong outflow boundaries southwest into the metro areas, which typically have more instability due to being hotter in the low levels.
On Friday, I am expecting the ridge of high pressure to be centered over Central California. This, with an upper-level low to the south will combine forces and sandwich the statement areas above in-between air-masses. This will develop storms along the Mogollon Rim and then the storms will shove southwestward. Damaging winds will be the main factor within this, but some will contain larger hail at times.
I am keeping the areas south of Central Pinal County out of this due to the southerly flow influence of the low to the south that would block any activity from moving due west. This is a complex atmosphere, but the magenta color in the article image is the main zone I expect. There is a chance it will target Northern Maricopa County more than southern, but all in all this will be the coup de grace in this rare week of storms that have hit the region.
Arizona Weather Force will look into the pattern tomorrow (Friday) morning and if needed, this statement will upgrade to the final official Severe Thunderstorm Watch so stay tuned.