July 19, 2022 at 1:20 pm

Long Range Weather Advisory Issued: Arizona Monsoon to Highly Increase July 23rd through End Month; Model Inside


Arizona Weather Force has issued the rare but official Long-Range Weather Advisory effective between July 23rd and 31st for significant rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the state so read on for details and see the models …

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Hurricane Estelle will buckle the high-pressure center to the east, which will bring in the deep-layer moisture after July 23rd.  As the last article stated (click here), both upper dynamics and moisture will be the key here to bring an actual monsoon to most of the state, minus Yuma.

Deep-layer moisture will be available through the end of the month, and possibly even into the beginning of August.  In situations such as this, similar to last year, damaging winds, large hail, chance of tornadoes, and major flooding will all be happening.

If you live in an RV especially, I will be giving the forecast updates on which way to park.  You want to park where the straight-line winds will be coming from.  You do not want to park with the side of your vehicle being vulnerable to tip you over.  The front of your RV is the best defense to keep you stable.  Again, I will have which way to park them in each update as the event nears.  If storms come from the northeast, you park facing northeast and so on.

The Arizona Weather Force Significant Rainfall Model in the long range is posted below.  You also can see it in the community section GPS model tab.  Follow directions below for that.

Below are clickable maps of the AZWF Heat Risk Model.  There are four of them… NW half of AZ, NE half of AZ, SW half of AZ, and the SE half of AZ..

This was a follow-up to the following articles – You can read them and see how this forecast is evolving from Day 1.

July 18, 2022
WARNING: Hurricane Estelle to Enhance Arizona Monsoon with Major Increase in Storms After July 23rd

June 1, 2022
FINAL MONSOON FORECAST: Southwestern United States Monsoon Forecast Finalized as Stronger Than Normal; FREE Memberships Now Open

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