Welcome back to the site after the holiday week. I hope you had a great Christmas and a Happy New Year so far. We start off the new year here with the January 2022 forecast. And I will say, it looks opposite of December 2021’s with a different atmosphere and this is for both Southern California and Arizona Weather Force so read on for details after the first paragraph …
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The December 2021 forecast went exactly as thought, word for word in both regions. Los Angeles had near 9.50″ of rainfall during the month alone with a normal amount of 2.48″, which is unprecedented and will be the third highest amount during the month of December since records began, only behind 1989 and 2010. If you click here, this is exactly what my model showed, which is telling me further that we remain on track to keep getting the long range right. So, what about this month?
This month a raging jet into the Pacific Northwest, which has no blocking. No blocking means that we will continue to get the colder air out of the west in both regions of Southern California and Arizona, but it also means much drier conditions. My model is showing drier than normal conditions for most of California, majorly drier than normal for Southern California than Northern. There are indications that weak cutoff systems under the raging jet could bring more precipitation to Tucson than say even Phoenix, but the amount just doesn’t look so high, but bears watching for that area sometime mid-month.
With that being said, the colder than normal temperatures are already being felt in both regions. In long range forecast, Los Angeles is used as a base. In my long range forecast for the season, I predicted 7-14″ of rainfall with a likelihood of 10-14″. We are already at 10″ for Los Angeles, which shows we are on track here in the Desert Southwest – with that number not even close to being a traditional La Nina. That means that La Nina is NOT controlling the current weather pattern for the season thus far. It will definitely seem like it in January though, but we still have February, March, and April left, that of which can easily add more storms into the forecast.
So here is the breakdown – If you want to fix your roof, this is the best month to do so just in-case feb/mar/apr become active again
Precipitation: Below Average
Temperatures: Below Average
Precipitation: Equal chances use the map provided below.
Temperature: Below Average
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The following articles were talked about in this write-up
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